Global Warming in Current Century

Abstract

A common opinion is that it would maintain or intensify the present global pace of warming. In recent decades, however, we contend that global warming has been caused primarily by non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH₄ and N₂O, and not by fossil fuel burning materials, CO₂ and aerosols, which are partly offsetting the positive and negative climate forcings. In the last decade, the growth rate of non-CO₂ GHGs has decreased. If the sources of CH₄ and O₃ precursors were reduced in the future, climate change forcing non-CO₂ GHGs could be close to zero over the next 50 years. This reduction in non-CO₂ GHGs, combined with a drop in black carbon emissions and a plausible progress in slowing CO₂ emissions, may lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, thus decreasing the likelihood of drastic climate change. Such an emphasis on air pollution has practical advantages which unite developed and developing countries' interests. Nevertheless, the evaluation of current and potential climate change needs specific long-term global aerosol property monitoring.