Global Warming and Storms

Abstract

Climate change discussions also mix scientific with political concerns. Discussion of extreme events is a common locus of such uncertainty owing to their severe and visceral impacts. This background is properly characterized by Linda Means of the National Center for Atmospheric Science (NCAR). In this paper, in the light of global warming, we focus on a specific category of severe occurrence, the tropical cyclone. We follow the distinctions between incident risk and result risk provided by Sarewitz et al in our debate. 'Event risk' refers to the emergence of a specific activity and we rely on averages and forecasts of storm frequencies and intensities in the form of hurricanes. "Vulnerability" refers to "a system's inherent features that create the potential for harm," but are independent of the likelihood of incidents. Vulnerability in the sense of the economic consequences of tropical cyclones has been described in terms of demographic and income patterns that set the stage for damage caused by storms. "Outcome risk" combines hazard factors with event risk in order to describe an occurrence that causes losses. The incidence of a hurricane of $100 billion in the United States is an instance of result possibility. To measure such a chance allows both vulnerability and incident probability to be taken into account. From both of these viewpoints, this post addresses hurricanes and global warming.